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Market note · October 2026

Salmon, trout and farmed fish prices: October 2026 review and outlook

Among salmon, trout and farmed fish bought frozen by food manufacturers, LiveQuote expects only pink salmon prices to rise between October 2026 and April 2027; sea bass and sea bream, pangasius, perch and pike-perch should stay stable, and Atlantic salmon, trout and Nile perch get a mixed call. Farming is running at full capacity, but wild catch is short in the North Pacific and in Lake Victoria.

The market in four figures

  • 98,400 tPacific salmon caught in Russia as of 29 September 2026, against a forecast of 227,000 t
    Russian catch data, 29 September 2026
  • +97%Year-on-year wholesale price of pink salmon in Russia at end September 2026, about €6.78/kg
    Russian wholesale prices, 21 to 27 September 2026
  • €11.65/kgFrozen Atlantic salmon fillets at Norwegian export in September 2026, the lowest month of the year
    Norwegian Seafood Council, Statistics Norway, September 2026
  • 2,000 tNile perch exported by Uganda in January and February 2026 (2,000 to 2,200 t), a twenty-year low
    Uganda export data, January and February 2026
Côme de CervalData expert, LiveQuote
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At a glance

Our calls to April 2027

Salmon and trout
CommodityTrend
Atlantic salmonFrozen in a narrow band, fresh set to rise
Mixed
Pink salmonRussian catch far short of forecast, no new supply soon
Up
TroutDearer Turkish imports, but cheaper Norwegian fillets
Mixed
Farmed and freshwater whitefish
CommodityTrend
Sea bass and sea breamHigh, flat prices and a long farming cycle
Stable
PangasiusEasing farm prices, but fewer volumes to the EU
Stable
Nile perchFirm frozen on very low Ugandan exports, weaker fresh
Mixed
Perch and pike-perchRising Kazakh supply capping prices
Stable
Six-month calls

The road to April 2027

  1. 21 October 2026Index date
  2. No date set yet

    Salmon and trout

    Farmed salmon is plentiful and frozen stays in a narrow band. Wild pink salmon is short, and trout is split between a dearer Turkey and a cheaper Norway.

    • Mixed

      Atlantic salmon

      Frozen Atlantic salmon fillets and portions

      Frozen fillets at Norwegian export moved in a narrow band: €11.81/kg in January 2026, €12.67/kg in July, €11.65/kg in September, the year's low. Fresh should rise toward winter (forward prices €7.00/kg for Q4 2026, €8.41/kg for Q1 2027); frozen follows only part of it.

    • Up

      Pink salmon

      Frozen pink salmon

      Russia caught 98,400 t of Pacific salmon as of 29 September 2026 against 227,000 t forecast, and Russian wholesale prices reached 650 RUB/kg at end September (+97% year on year). Nothing new arrives before the July to September 2027 catches.

    • Mixed

      Trout

      Rainbow trout, whole and fillets

      Turkish frozen trout at EU import averaged €4.95/kg from January to August 2026, +11% on a year earlier, while Norwegian frozen fillets at export fell from €9.75/kg in January to €6.32/kg in September. The two origins pull in opposite directions.

    Farmed and freshwater whitefish

    Sea bass and sea bream stay expensive with no new supply before spring. Pangasius follows the euro, Nile perch is short in Lake Victoria and Kazakhstan feeds perch and pike-perch.

    • Stable

      Sea bass and sea bream

      Frozen sea bass and sea bream fillets

      Stable at a high level: sea bass customs values were flat at €7.65 to €7.89/kg from June to August 2026. The farming cycle exceeds one year: nothing stocked in cages in 2026 arrives before spring.

    • Stable

      Pangasius

      Frozen pangasius fillets

      Vietnamese pangasius fillets at EU import rose from €2.43/kg in March 2026 to €2.69/kg in August, following the February farm-gate record with a lag. The farm-gate price has since eased, output is up 4.4% and volumes to the EU are down 6%.

    • Mixed

      Nile perch

      Nile perch fillets, fresh and frozen

      Frozen stays firm: Uganda exported 2,000 to 2,200 t in January and February 2026, a twenty-year low, and frozen fillets at EU import went from €6.51/kg in January to €7.34/kg in August. Fresh Ugandan fillets have lost 11% since their April peak.

    • Stable

      Perch and pike-perch

      Frozen perch and pike-perch fillets

      Frozen freshwater fish fillets at EU import stood at €7.58/kg in January 2026 and €7.94/kg in August, 3% below last year on average. Rising Kazakh supply (fillet exports +36.8% in the first half) caps prices.

  3. April 2027End of the six-month calls
    To watch

    An EU measure on Russian-origin fish: the EU dropped plans to target seafood in its sanctions in July 2026, but a new measure would amplify the pink salmon rise and quickly tighten perch and pike-perch supply. For trout, if Turkey loses part of the Russian market, more Turkish trout will come to Europe.

LiveQuote index

Index changes at 21 October 2026

Salmon and trout
Commodity3 months1 year
Atlantic salmon+8.2%+11.4%
Pink salmon (also Chum salmon, Coho salmon)+8.4%+20.7%
Sockeye salmon+19.8%+19.3%
Rainbow trout+4%+7%
Brown trout+0.9%+8.4%
Farmed and freshwater fish
Commodity3 months1 year
Sea bass+0.1%+4.8%
Spotted sea bass+6.1%+5.3%
Gilt-head bream-0.2%+0.5%
Common pandora+1.6%+7.3%
Meagre-3%+1.9%
Turbot-2.1%+10.9%
Pangasius-3%-0.5%
Tilapia (also Nile tilapia, Black tilapia)+1.4%-3.4%
Nile perch-0.3%+7.6%
LQI

LiveQuote index changes at 21 October 2026. An index change is not the price of one product.

Forces at play

What moves these markets

  • Farming puts volume on the market

    Norway exported 464,700 t of salmon in the third quarter (+12%) and a record 165,393 t in September 2026. Chile: salmon and trout +12%. Vietnam: pangasius +4.4%. Turkey: trout exports +17%. These volumes hold fresh prices and cap frozen.

  • Currencies make up part of the price

    The krone moved from 11.84 to 10.80 per euro: from January to September 2026, frozen salmon fillet lost 8.3% in krone but only 3.2% in euros. Pangasius is stable in dollars and 5% cheaper in euros. The Turkish lira lost more than 10% against the euro, room for cuts Turkish exporters have not yet used.

  • Wild catch is short

    Russian Pacific salmon stood at 98,400 t against 227,000 t forecast, Alaska pink salmon at 47% of its projection in mid August, and Uganda is at a twenty-year low for Nile perch. For these species, no new supply arrives before next season.

  • Russia stays in the loop

    Part of Russian Pacific salmon reaches Europe after processing in China. Russia and Belarus buy 81% of Turkish trout, and Russia supplies a quarter of perch and pike-perch fillets. In July 2026 the EU dropped plans to target seafood in its sanctions; a new measure would quickly shift flows.

Questions

What buyers ask

  • Will Atlantic salmon prices rise this winter?

    Fresh Atlantic salmon should rise toward winter, with forward prices of €7.00/kg for Q4 2026 and €8.41/kg for Q1 2027, and 2027 global supply growth limited to 0 to 2% according to Mowi. Frozen fillets, at €11.65/kg at Norwegian export in September 2026, should follow only part of it: slight firmness in Q1 2027, then likely easing from May.

  • Why are pink salmon prices rising?

    The 2026 wild season was short. Russia caught 98,400 t of Pacific salmon as of 29 September 2026 against a 227,000 t forecast, and Alaska had 26.1 million pink salmon as of 15 August, 47% of projection. Russian wholesale prices reached 650 RUB/kg at end September, +97% year on year, and nothing new arrives before the July to September 2027 catches.

  • Will pangasius prices rise in the coming months?

    LiveQuote expects pangasius to stay stable to April 2027. Vietnamese fillets at EU import rose from €2.43/kg in March 2026 to €2.69/kg in August, but the Mekong farm-gate price has eased, output is growing and the EU is buying less. The euro remains the lever: in dollars, the EU entry price is flat year on year.

Main sources

Eurostat Comext, customs values and volumesNorwegian Seafood Council, Statistics NorwayRabobank, Mowi, SeafoodSource, SalmonBusinessNatsrybresurs, VNIRO, Rosrybolovstvo (Russia)ASMI and ADF&G (Alaska)DKIB (Turkey), Subpesca (Chile)FranceAgriMer, Réseau des Nouvelles des MarchésFAO GLOBEFISHWTO Center of Vietnam, General Statistics Office of VietnamDaily Monitor (Uganda), Kapital.kzECB and Bank of Russia, exchange rates

For information only, not a purchasing recommendation. The six-month calls give a likely direction, not a guaranteed price forecast.

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