Raw material prices, month by month

In October 2026, vannamei shrimp is the only crustacean, cephalopod or shellfish price we expect to fall through April 2027, as Ecuador exports record volumes; lobster, jumbo squid, Illex and octopus look stable. Chilean mussel, king scallop and Japanese scallop remain expensive on short harvests or weaker stocks. El Niño, expected to be strong off Peru this winter, is the common risk.

Among salmon, trout and farmed fish bought frozen by food manufacturers, LiveQuote expects only pink salmon prices to rise between October 2026 and April 2027; sea bass and sea bream, pangasius, perch and pike-perch should stay stable, and Atlantic salmon, trout and Nile perch get a mixed call. Farming is running at full capacity, but wild catch is short in the North Pacific and in Lake Victoria.

For tuna and small pelagics, LiveQuote expects stable prices until April 2027 for frozen mackerel, herring, yellowfin and albacore, and no single direction for sardine, anchovy and skipjack, as of October 2026. Mackerel holds a high plateau after a 48% quota cut, sardine hinges on whether Morocco lifts its export ban, and Bangkok skipjack is close to its all-time highs.

Whitefish stays expensive in October 2026: among our 11 six-month calls to April 2027, Alaska pollock is the only expected rise, cod, saithe and ray wings should stay stable, and the other seven are mixed. The 2026 quota cuts pushed cod and saithe fillets to records, and the 2027 quotas will only be set in December.

In October 2026, the Turkish frost premium on dried fruits is fading: we expect sultana, dried apricot and dried fig prices to move down through April 2027, as the Turkish crop is back after the April 2025 frost and raw material costs far less. Prunes and dates should stay stable, prunes due to short supply, dates due to ample supply.

Most industrial fruit prices should hold or ease to April 2027: of the 27 materials called in October 2026, 12 are expected stable, 5 down, 9 mixed and only IQF Kent mango up. Turkish and Serbian harvests recovered in 2026 and raw material prices collapsed, but Poland is short of berries again and processed products follow with a lag.

Tree nut prices are heading in different directions through April 2027: pistachio is the only one where we expect an increase, while hazelnut, almond and walnut get mixed calls. The Turkish hazelnut spot halved in a year to €7.33/kg FOB in August 2026, and global pistachio production is expected to fall 42% in 2026/27.