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Market note · October 2026

Tree nut prices: October 2026 review and six-month outlook

Tree nut prices are heading in different directions through April 2027: pistachio is the only one where we expect an increase, while hazelnut, almond and walnut get mixed calls. The Turkish hazelnut spot halved in a year to €7.33/kg FOB in August 2026, and global pistachio production is expected to fall 42% in 2026/27.

The market in four figures

  • €7.33/kgTurkish hazelnut 11 to 13 mm FOB in August 2026, half the September 2025 peak
    Turkish FOB spot, public indications, August 2026
  • -42%Expected global pistachio production in 2026/27, with the US crop more than halved
    INC (International Nut and Dried Fruit Council), 2026/27 forecast
  • €6.26/kgStandard 5% almond FAS California on 13 August 2026, up from €4.64/kg at the 2025/26 season opening
    Californian benchmark, 13 August 2026
  • €5.54/kgCalifornian walnut kernels at EU entry in July 2026, 24% below July 2025
    EU entry price, July 2026
Côme de CervalData expert, LiveQuote
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At a glance

Our calls to April 2027

Hazelnut
CommodityTrend
HazelnutBig Turkish crop, but TMO buying and export demand
Mixed
Pistachio
CommodityTrend
PistachioMuch smaller US and world crops
Up
Almond and walnut
CommodityTrend
AlmondWeaker northern yields, but buyers pushing back
Mixed
WalnutSmaller Californian crop, but duty-free and other origins
Mixed
Six-month calls

The road to April 2027

  1. 7 October 2026Index date
  2. February 2027

    Californian bloom

  3. April 2027Black Sea frost risk

    Hazelnut

    The Turkish spot has halved in a year: 11 to 13 mm FOB peaked at around €15.26/kg in late September 2025, then fell to €10.40/kg in March 2026 and €7.33/kg in August. Buyers stepped back at the peak and stockholders were forced to sell.

    • Mixed

      Hazelnut

      Shelled hazelnut

      The spot argues for a decline: the INC estimates the 2026 Turkish crop at 809,940 t, 56% above 2025. What TMO takes off the market (205,000 t reserved by growers as of mid-September) and export demand, up 36% in September, will help set the level.

  4. No date set yet

    Pistachio

    Pistachio is the only one of the four tree nuts where we expect an increase. The US crop has shrunk after record heat in California in March 2026, and Iran is exporting less.

    • Up

      Pistachio

      Shelled pistachio

      The trade estimates the US crop at 600 to 800 million lb versus 1,593 million in 2025, and the INC forecasts 2026/27 global production at 641,300 t, down 42%. Sellers are announcing +25 to 30% on wholesale prices.

    Almond and walnut

    Two markets where the Californian crop is smaller. Buyers are pushing back on almond, while Chile, Ukraine and China are weighing on walnut prices in Europe.

    • Mixed

      Almond

      Almond and almond flour

      Standard 5% FAS reached €6.26/kg on 13 August 2026, and supply is pushing upward: USDA crop of 2.7 billion lb (-1%), northern yields down 15 to 20%. But buyers are pushing back: new August sales -25%, commitments -5.5%.

    • Mixed

      Walnut

      Walnut kernels

      The 2026 Californian crop is estimated at 680,000 short tons, -16%, and the old crop is fully committed. But US walnuts enter the EU duty-free, Chile expects 170,000 t, Ukraine 97,200 t (+15%), and Chinese light pieces start at €2.95/kg FOB Dalian.

  5. April 2027End of the six-month calls
    To watch

    Purchases and resales by Turkish state agency TMO, the reopening of Hormuz for Iranian pistachio, and the Californian bloom in February 2027.

LiveQuote index

Index changes at 7 October 2026

Tree nuts
Commodity3 months1 year
Hazelnut-5.3%+2.2%
Almond+10.2%+3.5%
Almond paste+2.4%-1.3%
Pistachio+2.2%+2.8%
Walnut-0.5%-1.6%
Cashew+0.9%+7.6%
Pecan-1.1%+12.4%
Macadamia-3%-4%
Brazil nut-14%-30.3%
Pine nut+5%+26.7%
Peanut+0.4%+2.4%
Nutmeg-2.6%-0.8%
LQI

LiveQuote index changes at 7 October 2026. An index change is not the price of one product.

Forces at play

What moves these markets

  • Turkey and its state agency

    TMO is buying in-shell hazelnuts at TRY 250/kg while the open market was paying TRY 184 to 191/kg in early October. What it takes off the market, and when it resells, will set a large part of the season's price.

  • California sets the tone

    Record heat in March 2026 disrupted pistachio pollination in California, northern almond yields are down 15 to 20% and the walnut crop is down 16%. US walnuts and almonds have, however, entered the EU duty-free, within a quota, since 1 July 2026.

  • Hormuz and Iran

    The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026 cut Iranian pistachio exports by about 64% in July. A quick reopening would ease the market; a prolonged blockade would tighten it further.

Questions

What buyers ask

  • Will pistachio prices rise into 2027?

    We expect pistachio prices to rise through April 2027. The INC forecasts 2026/27 global production down 42%, and the Hormuz blockade cut Iranian pistachio exports by about 64% in July. The cushion: 221 million lb of marketable US stocks at end of August (+47%). Relief will come from the 2027 crop, an "on" year, beyond this horizon.

  • Will hazelnut prices keep falling after the 2026 Turkish harvest?

    The spot argues for a decline: the INC estimates the 2026 Turkish crop at 809,940 t, 56% above 2025, and Ferrero has contracted 20,000 to 22,000 t of kernels at around €7.50/kg. Our six-month call is nonetheless mixed. A Black Sea frost in April 2027, or a TMO keeping its purchases off the market, would push prices back up.

  • Are almond prices going up?

    The Californian benchmark has risen: Standard 5% FAS opened the 2025/26 season at €4.64/kg and reached €6.26/kg on 13 August 2026, and delivered Central Europe was at €6.81/kg in September. Supply is pushing upward, but buyers are pushing back, with new August sales -25%. Our call through April 2027 is mixed.

Main sources

Eurostat Comext, customs values and volumesEuropean Commission, supply chain pricesGUS (Poland), statistical offices of Serbia and TurkeyUSDA FAS and NASSINC (International Nut and Dried Fruit Council)Expana, Mundus Agri, FreshPlaza, EastFruitFranceAgriMer, Réseau des Nouvelles des MarchésECB, reference exchange rates

For information only, not a purchasing recommendation. The six-month calls give a likely direction, not a guaranteed price forecast.

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