Log inAsk for a demo
Market note · October 2026

Tuna and small pelagic prices: October 2026 review and six-month outlook

For tuna and small pelagics, LiveQuote expects stable prices until April 2027 for frozen mackerel, herring, yellowfin and albacore, and no single direction for sardine, anchovy and skipjack, as of October 2026. Mackerel holds a high plateau after a 48% quota cut, sardine hinges on whether Morocco lifts its export ban, and Bangkok skipjack is close to its all-time highs.

The market in four figures

  • -48%Cut in the 2026 mackerel quota, to 299,010 t
    United Kingdom, Norway, Faroe Islands and Iceland, 2026 quota
  • €4.78/kgFrozen whole mackerel under 600 g, Norwegian export price, early October 2026 (€2.57/kg in March 2025)
    Norwegian Seafood Council, week 41 of 2026
  • +53%Rise in frozen whole skipjack delivered to Bangkok since early January 2026, to 2,300 USD/t
    Atuna, FAO GLOBEFISH, InnovestX, 2 October 2026
  • 64 to 94%Morocco's share of Spanish frozen sardine imports before the export ban of 1 February 2026
    Spanish frozen sardine import statistics, before February 2026
Côme de CervalData expert, LiveQuote
Start my trial

7 days of full access, forecasts included, no card needed.

At a glance

Our calls to April 2027

Mackerel, herring, sardine and anchovy
CommodityTrend
MackerelDeep quota cut, Norwegian quota used up
Stable
HerringAmple supply from a larger herring quota
Stable
SardineMoroccan export ban, reopening would ease prices
Mixed
AnchovyCheaper fresh fish, but quota to move frozen
Mixed
Tuna
CommodityTrend
SkipjackDearer raw skipjack, but cooked loins lagging
Mixed
YellowfinAmple supply, higher landings, weaker Thai buying
Stable
AlbacoreTight availability, but flat EU imports
Stable
Six-month calls

The road to April 2027

  1. 21 October 2026Index date
  2. 22 October 2026Last day of 2027 mackerel quota talks

    Mackerel, herring, sardine and anchovy

    Mackerel stays on a high plateau after the quota cut, and herring is abundant. Sardine awaits the Moroccan decision, and anchovy comes off a large Basque season.

    • February 2027Possible reopening of Moroccan sardine exports
    • Stable

      Mackerel

      Frozen whole Atlantic mackerel

      Norwegian mackerel under 600 g reached €4.78/kg in early October 2026, against €2.57/kg in March 2025, because the 2026 quota was cut by 48%. The 2026 Norwegian quota has been used up since 15 October, and nothing new arrives before the 2027 season.

    • Stable

      Herring

      Frozen herring fillets and flaps

      Norwegian fillets and flaps sold to the EU at €2.26/kg in early October 2026, against €2.10/kg in March 2025. Supply is ample: the 2026 Atlanto-Scandian herring quota is up 33%. We expect kroner prices between 23 and 26 NOK/kg until April 2027.

    • Mixed

      Sardine

      Frozen whole sardine for canning

      Morocco, which supplied 64 to 94% of Spanish frozen sardine imports, banned exports on 1 February 2026; the ban was meant to last at least one year. A reopening in February 2027 would quickly ease prices; an extension would keep the market tight.

    • Mixed

      Anchovy

      Frozen European anchovy

      Fresh anchovy at Basque auctions fetched €1.91/kg in late April 2026, against €2.27/kg a year earlier, but that is fresh fish. The 2027 quota, not yet set, will move frozen anchovy before summer.

  3. 9 November 2026Eastern Pacific closure starts

    Tuna

    Bangkok skipjack, which sets the cost of canned tuna, is close to its record highs. Yellowfin and albacore remain stable, and processed tuna has not yet followed.

    • 11 January 2027Eastern Pacific closure ends
    • Mixed

      Skipjack

      Frozen skipjack and cooked loins

      Skipjack delivered to Bangkok rose from 1,500 USD/t in early January to 2,300 USD/t on 2 October 2026, but Thai Union expects 1,900 to 2,100 USD/t in Q4. Cooked loins have not followed: €4.21/kg at EU import in August, against €4.31/kg a year earlier.

    • Stable

      Yellowfin

      Frozen whole yellowfin for canning

      At EU import, whole yellowfin rose from €2.04/kg in March to €2.41/kg in August 2026, but supply is ample: landings are up in the Eastern Pacific, and Thai purchases fell 22% from January to May.

    • Stable

      Albacore

      Frozen albacore for canning

      Frozen albacore imported into the EU was worth €3.20/kg from January to August 2026, against €3.23/kg a year earlier. Availability is described as tight in Q4, but EU imports have been flat for a year.

  4. April 2027End of the six-month calls
    To watch

    The 2027 mackerel agreement, the Moroccan export ban, fuel prices and El Niño, which is expected to be strong until spring.

LiveQuote index

Index changes at 21 October 2026

Small pelagics
Commodity3 months1 year
Mackerel+4.4%+39.9%
Herring+2.2%+6.9%
Sardine-7%+13.7%
European anchovy-10.6%+13.8%
Sprat+9.9%+18.2%
Chilean jack mackerel+5.5%+55.1%
Mediterranean horse mackerel-1.4%+7.2%
Tuna and swordfish
Commodity3 months1 year
Yellowfin tuna+1.6%+3.7%
Skipjack tuna+3.5%+2.9%
Albacore tuna+3.5%+1.1%
Bigeye tuna+3.4%+1.8%
Atlantic bluefin tuna-18.7%-12.3%
Swordfish+5%-1.2%
LQI

LiveQuote index changes at 21 October 2026. An index change is not the price of one product.

Forces at play

What moves these markets

  • Quotas set pelagic prices

    The 2026 mackerel quota is down 48% and the Atlanto-Scandian herring quota up 33%: the two species are moving in opposite directions. For 2027, ICES advises 352,938 t of mackerel (+18% on the 2026 limit) and 588,004 t of herring (+10%). The extra Norwegian mackerel would mostly arrive in autumn 2027.

  • Morocco turns off the sardine tap

    Moroccan landings fell to 525,000 t in 2024 from nearly one million, followed by a ban on frozen sardine exports since 1 February 2026. Spanish canners switched to Iberian sardine, which is more expensive and was fished until the quota ran out on 1 August 2026.

  • Fuel pushes tuna up

    Oil rose from 60 to 120 USD a barrel between July 2025 and July 2026. Western Pacific purse seiners have had poor catches since July, and Ecuadorian plants buy Asian fish during Eastern Pacific closures.

  • Processed tuna follows with a lag

    Precooked loins imported into the EU were worth €4.21/kg in August 2026, less than a year earlier, despite the surge in skipjack. Thai Union holds about five months of fish in stock and adjusts its prices two to three months later.

Questions

What buyers ask

  • Will mackerel prices fall in early 2027?

    We do not expect it before April 2027: the 2026 Norwegian quota has been used up since 15 October, and nothing new arrives before the 2027 season. A slight easing showed at the end of the season, at 51.26 NOK/kg in week 41 of 2026 against 53.07 the previous week.

  • Will canned tuna prices rise after the skipjack surge?

    Cost pressure points upward, but no rise had been measured by October 2026. Frozen skipjack delivered to Bangkok reached 2,300 USD/t on 2 October, up 53% since early January, while cooked loins were worth €4.21/kg at EU import in August, against €4.31/kg a year earlier. Thai Union adjusts its prices two to three months later.

  • When could frozen sardine prices ease?

    It hinges on Morocco, which banned frozen sardine exports on 1 February 2026, a ban meant to last at least one year. A reopening in February 2027 would quickly ease prices; an extension would keep the market tight. Iberian supply is limited until spring; Portuguese sardine opened at €1.85/kg on 4 May 2026, against €1.00/kg in 2025.

Main sources

Eurostat Comext, customs values and volumesNorwegian Seafood Council, Norges SildesalgslagICES, SeafoodSource, Baird MaritimeSpanish Ministry of Fisheries (MAPA), Basque governmentPostal, Morocco World News, HespressEuropa Press, Onda Vasca, Orain, El ProgresoAtuna, InnovestX (Thai Union)FAO GLOBEFISH, INFOFISHWCPFC, IATTC, IOTC, ICCATNOAA Climate Prediction CenterUndercurrent News, FZ Easy SeafoodECB, reference exchange rates

For information only, not a purchasing recommendation. The six-month calls give a likely direction, not a guaranteed price forecast.

Next step

From the trend to the consultation

The note gives you the direction of prices.
LiveQuote shows you the available suppliers and their offers on your actual need.

  • The suppliers available for your materials
  • Today's market prices, against your offers
  • Six-month forecasts in LiveQuote Data
  • A demo on your own data, with no commitment

Follow your materials tonight

7 days of full access, forecasts included, no card needed.

Start my trial

The full note

Every chapter, its figures and its sources, in one PDF.

Let's talk

A 30-minute demo is enough to see what the tool changes on one of your materials.

Ask for a demo

or write to [email protected]

Read next

Other market notes

Crustacean, cephalopod and shellfish prices: October 2026 review and outlook

5 min read

In October 2026, vannamei shrimp is the only crustacean, cephalopod or shellfish price we expect to fall through April 2027, as Ecuador exports record volumes; lobster, jumbo squid, Illex and octopus look stable. Chilean mussel, king scallop and Japanese scallop remain expensive on short harvests or weaker stocks. El Niño, expected to be strong off Peru this winter, is the common risk.

Read the post
€4.87/kg
Ecuadorian shrimp at EU import in July 2026, the lowest since March 2021Eurostat, July 2026
  • Down
    Vannamei shrimp
  • Mixed
    Argentine shrimp, Patagonian squid, Chilean mussel, King scallop, Scallops
  • Stable
    Lobster, Jumbo squid, Illex, Octopus

Salmon, trout and farmed fish prices: October 2026 review and outlook

5 min read

Among salmon, trout and farmed fish bought frozen by food manufacturers, LiveQuote expects only pink salmon prices to rise between October 2026 and April 2027; sea bass and sea bream, pangasius, perch and pike-perch should stay stable, and Atlantic salmon, trout and Nile perch get a mixed call. Farming is running at full capacity, but wild catch is short in the North Pacific and in Lake Victoria.

Read the post
98,400 t
Pacific salmon caught in Russia as of 29 September 2026, against a forecast of 227,000 tRussian catch data, 29 September 2026
  • Up
    Pink salmon
  • Mixed
    Atlantic salmon, Trout, Nile perch
  • Stable
    Sea bass and sea bream, Pangasius, Perch and pike-perch

Whitefish prices: October 2026 review and six-month outlook

5 min read

Whitefish stays expensive in October 2026: among our 11 six-month calls to April 2027, Alaska pollock is the only expected rise, cod, saithe and ray wings should stay stable, and the other seven are mixed. The 2026 quota cuts pushed cod and saithe fillets to records, and the 2027 quotas will only be set in December.

Read the post
€11.77/kg
Record EU import value of frozen cod fillets in August 2026 (€9.43/kg in December 2025)Eurostat Comext, August 2026
  • Up
    Alaska pollock
  • Mixed
    Haddock, Cape hake, Argentine hake, Greenland halibut, Sole, Plaice and 1 more
  • Stable
    Cod, Saithe, Ray wings
All market notes

Cookie preferences

We use cookies for essential features like authentication, and optional cookies for analytics and error tracking. You can choose to accept or decline optional cookies. Privacy Policy