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Market note · October 2026

Industrial fruit prices: October 2026 review and six-month outlook

Most industrial fruit prices should hold or ease to April 2027: of the 27 materials called in October 2026, 12 are expected stable, 5 down, 9 mixed and only IQF Kent mango up. Turkish and Serbian harvests recovered in 2026 and raw material prices collapsed, but Poland is short of berries again and processed products follow with a lag.

The market in four figures

  • €5.70/kgWhole IQF raspberry from Serbia, end of August 2026, 19% below last year
    Serbian transactions, end of August 2026
  • €2.36/kgFrozen Serbian sour cherry at EU entry, July 2026, versus €4.70 a year earlier
    EU customs value, July 2026
  • PLN 12.50/kgRecord price Polish plants offered for blackcurrant for freezing (€2.89), mid-July 2026
    Polish processing plants, July 2026
  • 178,595 tExpected mango crop in Peru's three main regions, versus 557,440 t in a normal year
    Peruvian production estimate, as of October 2026
Côme de CervalData expert, LiveQuote
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At a glance

Our calls to April 2027

Strawberry and raspberry
CommodityTrend
Whole IQF raspberryFalling Serbian price, floor now set by Poland and Ukraine
Down
Raspberry crumble and puréeShort Polish crop firms crumble, easing whole fruit caps it
Mixed
Frozen strawberryEgypt sets the price, steady at EU entry
Stable
Senga Sengana strawberryPolish price set below the peak, crop in stock
Stable
Other berries
CommodityTrend
Wild blueberryBetter crop after a poor year, but empty stocks
Stable
BlackcurrantRecord Polish price after frost and heat
Stable
RedcurrantHigh Polish plant prices, rising costs and customs values
Stable
Cherries, apricot and plum
CommodityTrend
Frozen sour cherryLarger Serbian and Turkish crops, halved import prices
Down
Sour cherry puréeCheaper Polish fruit, but dear concentrate still unsold
Mixed
Frozen sweet cherryLower Greek export prices, large Turkish crop expected
Down
ApricotBigger harvest forecast, but diverging early prices
Mixed
PlumLarger Serbian crop, but no product price confirms it yet
Mixed
Apple, pear and citrus
CommodityTrend
Apple juice concentrateSmaller EU harvest, but slipping apple prices
Stable
Apple puréeCheaper apples, but fruit is a small part of the price
Stable
Frozen applePricier peeling apples, risk of short Polish supply in spring
Stable
Williams pearLower grower prices, but packing-house prices almost stable
Mixed
Orange juiceBig Brazilian harvest, higher stocks, far below past peak
Stable
Lemon juiceOffers held steady, easing hinges on a disputed Spanish crop
Mixed
LimeFew containers arriving, easing once Brazil's season starts
Down
ClementineSeason opened low, ahead of the usual autumn decline
Down
Tropical fruit, coconut and others
CommodityTrend
IQF Kent mangoCollapsed Peruvian shipments, stocks running out
Up
Mango puréeStranded Indian pulp keeps Totapuri cheap, Alphonso yields poor
Mixed
PineappleEasing from peak, but Thai drought could lift offers
Mixed
Banana puréeSteady Ecuadorian export values, but dearer green bananas
Mixed
Desiccated coconutPrices well off the highs
Stable
Coconut oilEased from record, El Niño effect only comes much later
Stable
RhubarbRecovered Polish areas, crop in stock
Stable
Six-month calls

The road to April 2027

  1. 7 October 2026Index date
  2. December 2026First new-crop strawberry offers

    Strawberry and raspberry

    Whole raspberry is coming off its record while crumble stays firm on a short Polish crop. Strawberry is anchored by Egypt, stable since 2025.

    • Down

      Whole IQF raspberry

      Whole IQF raspberry

      Serbian 95% IQF ex works fell from €7.10/kg at the end of September 2025 to €5.70/kg at the end of August 2026; the floor now comes from Poland, whose harvest is down 24.4%, and Ukraine.

    • Mixed

      Raspberry crumble and purée

      Raspberry crumble and purée

      A short Polish crop keeps crumble firm, with plants paying up to PLN 19.50/kg (€4.45) at the end of September 2026, but easing whole fruit caps it and purée has had no prices since June.

    • Stable

      Frozen strawberry

      Frozen strawberry

      Egypt sets the price, at USD 1,150 to 1,200/t FOB in 2026, and its strawberry has moved between €1.11 and 1.23/kg at EU entry every month since January 2025.

    • Stable

      Senga Sengana strawberry

      Senga Sengana strawberry

      The Polish industrial price was set in June 2026 at PLN 6.00 to 7.50/kg (€1.41 to 1.77), around a quarter below the 2025 peak, and the 2026 crop is in stock.

  3. 1 December 20261 December apple stock count

    Apple, pear and citrus

    A large 2025 harvest and heavy stocks make raw material cheap, but the shorter 2026 harvest limits the fall. Orange juice is at the floor, lemon still firm.

    • January 2027Southern Hemisphere Williams pears arrive
    • Stable

      Apple juice concentrate

      Apple juice concentrate

      The Polish benchmark rose back to €1,600/t FCA Europe on 28 August 2026 from 1,400 in spring; the 2026 EU harvest is forecast down 15.6%, but apple prices are slipping.

    • Stable

      Apple purée

      Apple purée

      Industrial apples fell to around €16/100 kg in Germany in August 2026 from 31 in June 2025, but the fruit is only a fifth of the purée price.

    • Stable

      Frozen apple

      Frozen apple (dices and quarters)

      Dices use pricier peeling apples and the fruit is only a third of their cost; the risk is in spring if sound apples run short in Poland, whose 2026 harvest is down 29.9%.

    • Mixed

      Williams pear

      Williams pear, purée and frozen

      Emilia-Romagna Williams growers got €0.75 to 0.85/kg in August 2026 versus 1.05 to 1.15 in 2025, but packing-house prices are almost stable and purée and frozen lack external prices.

    • Stable

      Orange juice

      Orange juice (concentrate and NFC)

      Brazilian concentrate FCA Europe fell from €6,360/t in August 2024 to around €1,940/t at the end of September 2026, with the Brazilian harvest up 27% and stocks up 75%.

    • Mixed

      Lemon juice

      Lemon juice (concentrate and NFC)

      Argentine cloudy concentrate offers have held at €2.60 to 2.77/kg for two months; any easing in early 2027 depends on a Spanish 2026/27 harvest forecast up 19% but disputed in Murcia.

    • Down

      Lime

      Fresh lime

      With 18 containers expected in Europe in September 2026 instead of 120 to 140, lime stood at €3.54/kg on French wholesale markets, with easing expected once Brazil enters full season.

    • Down

      Clementine

      Fresh clementine

      Clemenules opened the 2026/27 season at €0.45/kg farm-gate in Valencia, ahead of the usual October to December decline, 17 to 25% over the last five seasons.

  4. April 2027Next rhubarb harvest starts

    Tropical fruit, coconut and others

    Peru's mango crop is short, Hormuz is blocking Indian pulp and coconut is stabilising after the 2023/24 El Niño shock. Rhubarb completes the chapter.

    • Up

      IQF Kent mango

      IQF Kent mango

      Peruvian shipments for 2025/26 fell 53%, conventional Kent stocks are running out and Peru's three main regions expect 178,595 t versus 557,440 t in a normal year.

    • Mixed

      Mango purée

      Mango purée (Totapuri, Alphonso)

      With Hormuz closed since 28 February 2026, nearly 250,000 t of Indian pulp was stranded at the end of April, keeping Totapuri cheap; Alphonso yields are 60 to 80% below normal.

    • Mixed

      Pineapple

      Pineapple (frozen, juice, canned)

      Concentrate has eased from its 2025 peak of around €4,000/t towards €3,100 to 3,280/t, but a Thai drought from November to January could push offers up again.

    • Mixed

      Banana purée

      Banana purée

      Ecuador exported 282 million boxes from January to August 2026 (+9.6%) and its export values hold around €0.49/kg, while green banana prices have risen in Europe since late August.

    • Stable

      Desiccated coconut

      Desiccated coconut

      Philippine desiccated coconut fell from around €3,300/t at the end of 2025 to €2,600/t FOB in September 2026, and a slight fall is more likely than a rise.

    • Stable

      Coconut oil

      Coconut oil and copra

      Coconut oil eased from its record €2,430/t in July 2025 to around €1,810/t CFR NW Europe, and El Niño would only cut nut numbers 12 to 18 months later.

    • Stable

      Rhubarb

      Frozen rhubarb

      Polish areas have recovered since plantings fell from 1,612 ha in 2021 to 1,339 ha in 2023, and the 2026 crop is in stock, with the next one starting in April 2027.

  5. No date set yet

    Other berries

    Wild blueberry, blackcurrant and redcurrant are stabilising at a high level, with no sign of easing before the 2027 harvest.

    • Stable

      Wild blueberry

      Frozen wild blueberry

      The 2025 Ukrainian harvest fell 53% and drought cost Quebec 40,000 t; 2026 is better but not normal, and stocks were empty at the start of picking.

    • Stable

      Blackcurrant

      Frozen blackcurrant

      After April frost and 40 °C at the end of June, Polish plants' price for freezing fruit went from PLN 4.00 to 4.50/kg to a record PLN 12.50 (€2.89) by mid-July 2026, and should hold.

    • Stable

      Redcurrant

      Frozen redcurrant

      Polish plants paid up to PLN 7 to 8/kg in mid-July 2026, versus 1.50 at most in 2024, and costs and customs values are trending upwards.

    Cherries, apricot and plum

    The 2025 frost had emptied stocks. The 2026 harvests in Turkey and Serbia came back strongly and raw material prices collapsed.

    • Down

      Frozen sour cherry

      Frozen sour cherry

      Serbia expects 96% more sour cherries and Turkey 250,000 t, and frozen Serbian sour cherry entered the EU at €2.36/kg in July 2026, half the July 2025 level.

    • Mixed

      Sour cherry purée

      Sour cherry purée and concentrate

      Polish pressing fruit sold for around €0.56/kg in 2026, a third to a half less than in 2025, but concentrate made from expensive 2025 fruit has still to be sold.

    • Down

      Frozen sweet cherry

      Frozen sweet cherry

      Greek frozen cherry exports came out at €2.07/kg in July 2026, versus €4.56 in 2025, and Turkey expects 750,000 t after a 2025 crop of 288,800 t.

    • Mixed

      Apricot

      Apricot halves and purée

      The 2026 European harvest is forecast at 505,320 t, up 6%, but the season's first prices diverge, with Spanish pulp exports down 25% and Greek ones up.

    • Mixed

      Plum

      Frozen plum and purée

      Serbia expects 109% more plums in 2026 and paid €0.17 to 0.26/kg for the fruit in August 2026, but no product price from the 2026 harvest confirms lower offers yet.

  6. April 2027End of the six-month calls
    To watch

    El Niño, given more than 90% probability by NOAA, will mainly weigh on late 2027 harvests. None of our calls rely on it.

LiveQuote index

Index changes at 7 October 2026

Strawberries, raspberries and berries
Commodity3 months1 year
Strawberry+18.4%-7.4%
Senga Sengana strawberry+18.2%-8.6%
Wild strawberry+9%-1%
Raspberry (also Heritage, Meeker, Willamette)+8.9%-2.3%
Wild blueberry+6.4%+15.5%
Cultivated blueberry+19.2%+0.3%
Redcurrant-8.6%+7.9%
Blackberry+4.4%+14%
Wild blackberry+4.4%+14.9%
Grape-41%-4.9%
Isabella grape-12.2%+2.2%
Stone fruit
Commodity3 months1 year
Sour cherry (also Lutowska, Oblačinska)-10.4%-35.8%
Plum-14.2%+3.5%
Quetsche plum-20.3%-6.4%
Peach-12%-4%
Yellow peach-7.8%-1.7%
Nectarine-13.5%-6.1%
Apples and pears
Commodity3 months1 year
Apple+4.7%+2.7%
Granny Smith apple+5.6%+3.9%
Jonagold apple+6%+2.2%
Morgenduft apple+7.4%+6.7%
Pear-2.1%-1.7%
Williams pear-13.5%-7.5%
Citrus
Commodity3 months1 year
Orange+8.4%-10.7%
Lemon-19.2%-12.8%
Lime+9.1%+46.4%
Clementine+25.8%-7.7%
Mandarin-3.6%+3.9%
Tangerine-1.8%+7.6%
Grapefruit+0.7%-17.3%
White pomelo+0.9%-16.5%
Pink pomelo+0.6%-17%
Red pomelo+3.9%-5.2%
Bigarade (bitter orange)-9%-24.8%
Exotic fruit
Commodity3 months1 year
Mango-10.2%+12.9%
Kent mango-10.2%+12.9%
Alphonso mango (also Amélie, Totapuri)-9.8%+12.7%
Pineapple-1%-1%
Banana+0.3%+0.5%
Plantain-0.3%+6.4%
Avocado+20.9%+18.2%
Kiwi-1.1%+0.2%
Papaya-1%+5.1%
Yellow passion fruit-5.9%+4.2%
Purple passion fruit-0.9%-1.6%
Dragon fruit (pitaya)-4.2%+3.4%
Guava-10.1%+19.3%
Pomegranate+1.2%-0.5%
Granadilla-1.1%+6.6%
Jackfruit+5%+19.8%
Melon+2.8%+16.4%
Green melon-12%+3.7%
Watermelon+9.6%+32.2%
Coconut
Commodity3 months1 year
Coconut+1%+0.5%
Dried coconut-1.5%-30.6%
Coconut copra+13.6%-28.4%
Coconut water+4.3%-10.5%
LQI

LiveQuote index changes at 7 October 2026. An index change is not the price of one product.

Forces at play

What moves these markets

  • Post-frost harvests are here, not all the price falls

    Serbia expects 96% more sour cherries and 109% more plums than in 2025, and the fall shows on sour and sweet cherry. But Poland is short again: raspberry down 24%, blackcurrant paid a record price to growers.

  • Cheaper raw material, not yet cheaper product

    Serbian plums are paid €0.17 to 0.26/kg versus 0.72 in 2025, Polish industrial apples €0.11 to 0.13/kg. Processed products follow with a lag, especially as the fruit is only about 35% of the cost of banana purée or frozen apple dices.

  • When prices diverge, we do not pick a side

    On apricot, Spanish pulp exports are down 25% while Greek ones are up. Nine materials are classed as mixed rather than forced into one direction.

  • Hormuz is already moving flows, El Niño will come later

    The Strait of Hormuz has been virtually closed to container ships since 28 February 2026: nearly 250,000 t of Indian mango pulp was stranded at the end of April. El Niño threatens Peruvian mango, Ecuadorian banana and, 12 to 18 months later, coconut.

Questions

What buyers ask

  • Will raspberry prices fall in 2027?

    We expect whole IQF raspberry to keep easing until March 2027 while staying well above 2024. Serbian 95% IQF ex works fell from €7.10/kg at the end of September 2025 to €5.70/kg at the end of August 2026, and Poland's short harvest and Ukraine set the floor.

  • Why is frozen mango expected to get more expensive?

    IQF Kent mango is the only one of our 27 fruit calls pointing up to April 2027. Peruvian shipments for 2025/26 fell 53%, conventional Kent stocks are running out, and Peru's three main regions expect 178,595 t versus 557,440 t in a normal year.

  • Will orange juice concentrate prices recover in 2027?

    Not in the next six months: we expect orange juice to stay low until spring 2027, with no real recovery. Brazilian concentrate FCA Europe fell from €6,360/t in August 2024 to around €1,940/t at the end of September 2026, with the Brazilian harvest up 27%.

Main sources

Eurostat Comext, customs values and volumesEuropean Commission, supply chain pricesGUS (Poland), statistical offices of Serbia and TurkeyUSDA FAS and NASSWAPA (apples and pears), AilimpoINC (International Nut and Dried Fruit Council)International Coconut Community, World BankFundecitrus, CitrusBR, CepeaExpana, Mundus Agri, FreshPlaza, EastFruitsad24, Jagodnik, Sady Ogrody (Poland)FranceAgriMer, Réseau des Nouvelles des MarchésECB, reference exchange ratesNOAA Climate Prediction Center

For information only, not a purchasing recommendation. The six-month calls give a likely direction, not a guaranteed price forecast.

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