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Market note · October 2026

Crustacean, cephalopod and shellfish prices: October 2026 review and outlook

In October 2026, vannamei shrimp is the only crustacean, cephalopod or shellfish price we expect to fall through April 2027, as Ecuador exports record volumes; lobster, jumbo squid, Illex and octopus look stable. Chilean mussel, king scallop and Japanese scallop remain expensive on short harvests or weaker stocks. El Niño, expected to be strong off Peru this winter, is the common risk.

The market in four figures

  • €4.87/kgEcuadorian shrimp at EU import in July 2026, the lowest since March 2021
    Eurostat, July 2026
  • 712,200 tJumbo squid landed by Peru in 2025, versus 188,300 t in 2024
    Peruvian landings, 2025
  • +42%Rise in Chilean mussel meat CIF Spain between December 2025 and May 2026, to €3.44/kg
    FAO GLOBEFISH European Fish Price Report, December 2025 to May 2026
  • -30%Exploitable king scallop biomass in the Bay of Seine for the 2026/27 season, versus last year
    Ifremer, 2026/27 season
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At a glance

Our calls to April 2027

Shrimp and lobster
CommodityTrend
Vannamei shrimpRecord Ecuadorian exports, stronger euro, heavy supply
Down
Argentine shrimpCatch is back, but China pays record prices
Mixed
LobsterLive lobster pulled to Asia, no pass-through to frozen
Stable
Squid and octopus
CommodityTrend
Jumbo squidLower Peruvian prices, higher limit, high Chinese stocks
Stable
IllexNarrow price range, no new landings, high Chinese stocks
Stable
Patagonian squidFalklands season closed early, but higher Spanish imports
Mixed
OctopusEasing Moroccan prices, quota not yet published
Stable
Shellfish
CommodityTrend
Chilean musselShort previous harvest, but supply now recovering
Mixed
King scallopSmaller Bay of Seine biomass, but weak French demand
Mixed
ScallopsJapanese prices cut US shipments, Peru steady
Mixed
Six-month calls

The road to April 2027

  1. 21 October 2026Index date
  2. 30 October 2026Mauritania closes its octopus season

    Squid and octopus

    Jumbo squid has lost more than half its value on a record Peruvian catch. Illex and octopus are holding their range, while Patagonian squid is living off stocks after the Falkland Islands closure.

    • January 2027Morocco reopens its octopus fishery
    • February 2027Falklands Loligo stock assessment
    • Stable

      Jumbo squid

      Jumbo squid (pota): tentacles, fillets and blocks

      Spanish imports from Peru fell from €5.96/kg in March 2025 to €2.14 in March 2026 and have held between €2.13 and €2.32 since. Peru raised its 2026 limit to 709,659 t on 30 August, and Chinese stocks are high.

    • Stable

      Illex

      Argentine shortfin squid (Illex), whole and tubes

      Spanish imports from Argentina stayed in a narrow range in 2026: €5.24/kg in January, €4.60 in August. No new Illex will be landed before the 2027 Argentine season, but Chinese stocks are high.

    • Mixed

      Patagonian squid

      Patagonian squid (Loligo gahi), whole and blocks

      The Falklands second season was closed on 27 August for low biomass, and no more Loligo will be caught there before 2027. Against a rise, Spain imported 8% more from January to August and the July-August value is 3% below last year.

    • Stable

      Octopus

      Common octopus, whole by size and blocks

      Moroccan frozen octopus at Spanish import eased from €13.81/kg in December 2025 to €11.40 in August 2026 (-16% year on year), and imports have ranged between €11.18 and €12.64/kg since March. Morocco's 2027 quota has not been published.

  3. December 2026Chilean mussel harvest season begins

    Shellfish

    Chilean mussel rose 42% in five months, French king scallop faces a shorter season and Japanese scallop remains at its peak. Peru and Chile are harvesting more.

    • Mixed

      Chilean mussel

      Frozen cooked mussel meat from Chile

      Chilean mussel meat CIF Spain rose from €2.43/kg in December 2025 to €3.44 in May 2026 (+42%) after a short 2025 harvest. Supply is turning, with the Los Lagos harvest up 88% in June and 185% in July.

    • Mixed

      King scallop

      Frozen king scallop meat (Pecten maximus)

      Ifremer puts the exploitable Bay of Seine biomass at 84,189 t for 2026/27, down 30%, and imported frozen meat in France fell from €35.00/kg in December 2025 to €28.50 in April-May 2026. Supply supports prices, while weak French demand holds them back.

    • Mixed

      Scallops

      Scallop meat: Japan, North America and Peru

      Japan and North America could go both ways: EU import from Japan stood at €34.46/kg from January to August 2026 (+37%), but Japanese prices cut shipments to the United States by 52%. Peru is stable, its EU import holding between €10.39 and €10.84/kg since February.

  4. 31 December 2026China's lobster tariff suspension expires

    Shrimp and lobster

    Ecuador is flooding the market with vannamei, and Argentine red shrimp is back in volume against record Chinese demand. Frozen lobster stays clear of the winter peak in live product.

    • Down

      Vannamei shrimp

      Frozen vannamei shrimp

      Ecuadorian shrimp at EU import fell from €5.96/kg in January 2025 to €4.90 in August 2026, driven by record Ecuadorian exports (+14% in Q2) and the euro rising from 1.035 to 1.151 dollars. Supply remains heavy.

    • Mixed

      Argentine shrimp

      Argentine red shrimp (langostino)

      The catch is back: 126,163 t in national waters at 9 September 2026, versus 88,850 t for the whole 2025 season. But China is paying record prices: wholesale prices rose 27% year on year for L1 and 44% for L2 in May.

    • Stable

      Lobster

      Frozen whole American lobster

      The winter peak in live product does not pass through to frozen. Live lobster is pulled towards Asia by China's suspension of its 25% tariff on Canadian lobster, from 1 March to 31 December 2026.

  5. April 2027End of the six-month calls
    To watch

    A coastal El Niño in Peru, the Moroccan octopus quota, and whether China renews its tariff suspension on Canadian lobster beyond 31 December 2026.

LiveQuote index

Index changes at 21 October 2026

Shrimp
Commodity3 months1 year
Shrimp-0.1%-0.1%
Vannamei shrimp (also Indian white prawn)-2.5%-0.6%
Black tiger shrimp+0.9%+13.2%
Argentine red shrimp+1%+7.7%
Northern shrimp-2.2%+27.6%
Pink shrimp+5.4%-0.1%
Brown shrimp (also Chinese red shrimp, Indian red shrimp, Titi shrimp)+1.5%+2.7%
Lobsters, spiny lobsters and crabs
Commodity3 months1 year
Lobster+4.5%+3.1%
American lobster+4.9%+3.4%
Norway lobster+2.3%+1.4%
Brown crab+2.1%+20.8%
Spiny lobster-9.7%-7.9%
Southern rock lobster (also Caribbean spiny lobster)-10.1%-11.2%
Pink spiny lobster-10.4%-10%
European spiny lobster-9.1%-8.6%
Cephalopods
Commodity3 months1 year
Common squid-2.8%+4%
Patagonian squid+6.6%+15.7%
Argentine shortfin squid+4.6%+3.9%
Broadtail shortfin squid+4.6%+5.7%
Northern shortfin squid+4.5%+4.6%
Indian squid (also California market squid)-3.4%+5.6%
European flying squid-12.7%-3.9%
Baby squid-10.6%+1.9%
Octopus-4.1%-1.8%
Common octopus-3.5%-0.6%
Big blue octopus (also Blanket octopus, Mexican four-eyed octopus)-3.2%-0.4%
Cuttlefish-9.6%-7.3%
Common cuttlefish-8.2%-5.9%
Pharaoh cuttlefish (also Needle cuttlefish, Japanese cuttlefish, Kisslip cuttlefish)+5.6%+12.4%
Shellfish
Commodity3 months1 year
Mussel+3.5%+4.4%
Mediterranean mussel+4%+4.7%
Chilean mussel+1.9%+25.8%
King scallop-3.4%+6.1%
Atlantic deep-sea scallop+8.7%+7.2%
Chilean scallop (also Patagonian scallop, Yesso scallop)+1.1%+16.4%
Clam+3.1%+21%
Surf clam+5.2%+17.2%
Cockle+6%+22.6%
Razor clam+5.1%+19.6%
Oysters+1.8%+10.5%
Chilean sea urchin+4.6%+2%
LQI

LiveQuote index changes at 21 October 2026. An index change is not the price of one product.

Forces at play

What moves these markets

  • Record volumes in shrimp and squid

    Ecuador exported nearly 450,000 t of shrimp in Q2 2026, 14% above the 2025 record. Peru landed 712,200 t of jumbo squid in 2025, nearly four times 2024, and the Argentine red shrimp season is already well above 2025.

  • China is redirecting flows

    Chinese restrictions on Ecuadorian plants are sending shrimp back to Europe, high squid stocks in Chinese ports are weighing on prices, and the suspension of the Chinese tariff on Canadian lobster, until 31 December 2026, is pulling live product towards Asia.

  • El Niño, the common risk

    Peru's ENFEN commission gave an 80 to 88% probability of an extraordinary coastal El Niño from October to December 2026, lasting into January 2027. Jumbo squid, northern Peru's scallop farms and Ecuadorian shrimp are all on the affected coast.

  • Shellfish: short harvests and regulation

    Chilean mussel harvest of 320,000 t in 2025 versus 450,000 t in 2021, red tides in Galicia, losses of about a quarter in France, dredging closures in the UK and the Bay of Seine down 30%. Chile and Peru are harvesting more in 2026, which could reverse the trend.

Questions

What buyers ask

  • Will vannamei shrimp prices keep falling into 2027?

    Vannamei shrimp is the only decline we expect through April 2027. Ecuadorian shrimp at EU import fell to €4.87/kg in July 2026, the lowest since March 2021, and supply remains heavy. Counterweights: Ecuadorian values have barely moved since May, and India holds between €6.58 and €7.05/kg.

  • Why have jumbo squid prices fallen so much?

    Peru landed 712,200 t of jumbo squid in 2025, versus 188,300 t in 2024, and the Spanish import price from Peru fell from €5.96/kg in March 2025 to €2.32 in August 2026. We expect stable prices through April 2027, but prices could rebound quickly if El Niño pushes squid away from the Peruvian fleet.

  • What will decide octopus prices in 2027?

    Morocco's 2027 quota, which has not been published. Morocco reopens in January. A quota well above 32,940 t, the winter quota after a 27% rise, would weigh on prices from early in the year, while a cut would push them back up.

Main sources

Eurostat Comext, customs values and volumesSeafoodSource, ShrimpInsights, Undercurrent NewsCAPeCA, Pescare (Argentina)Expana, FFAW, Navigator Magazine (lobster)FAO GLOBEFISH, European Fish Price ReportMAGyP (Argentina), Andina, ENFEN (Peru)MercoPress, Democrata (Falkland Islands)OKDiario, Hespress (octopus)FZ Easy Seafood (China)INE Chile via Aqua, Pittman SeafoodsIfremer, FranceAgriMer, MMOIPAC Acuicultura, NEFMCECB, reference exchange rates

For information only, not a purchasing recommendation. The six-month calls give a likely direction, not a guaranteed price forecast.

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