Log inAsk for a demo
Market note · October 2026

Dried fruit prices, October 2026: the Turkish frost premium fades

In October 2026, the Turkish frost premium on dried fruits is fading: we expect sultana, dried apricot and dried fig prices to move down through April 2027, as the Turkish crop is back after the April 2025 frost and raw material costs far less. Prunes and dates should stay stable, prunes due to short supply, dates due to ample supply.

The market in four figures

  • €2.62/kgEU entry price of Turkish sultanas in July 2026, after a €3.69/kg peak in February 2025
    Eurostat Comext, July 2026
  • ≈ €5.95/kgExport value of Turkish dried apricots in September 2026, after a record €8.10/kg in January
    Turkish export statistics, September 2026
  • €3.74/kgAverage EU import price of prunes in 2026, 14% above last year
    Eurostat Comext, 1 January to 27 September 2026
  • 404,000 tRecord date harvest in Tunisia in 2025/26, including 347,000 t of Deglet Nour
    Tunisian harvest data, 2025/26 season
Côme de CervalData expert, LiveQuote
Start my trial

7 days of full access, forecasts included, no card needed.

At a glance

Our calls to April 2027

Sultanas and dried apricots
CommodityTrend
Sultanas and raisinsCheaper new Turkish crop, rising world output
Down
Dried apricotsWeak Turkish exports, lower grower prices
Down
Dried figs and fig paste
CommodityTrend
Dried figsMuch bigger Turkish crop, cheap raw figs
Down
Prunes and dates
CommodityTrend
PrunesChilean crop largely committed, French losses expected
Stable
DatesRecord Tunisian harvest, rising world supply
Stable
Six-month calls

The road to April 2027

  1. 7 October 2026Index date
  2. November 2026Pre-Ramadan date shipping window opens

    Prunes and dates

    Two stable markets for opposite reasons: short supply until the Chilean harvest for prunes, ample supply for dates.

    • January 2027Pre-Ramadan date shipping window closes
    • 8 February 2027Ramadan (approximate date)
    • Stable

      Prunes

      Prunes

      Firm prices until the size of the 2027 Chilean crop is known, with upside risk: Chile has committed 90% of its crop and the French industry expects a 30 to 50% loss. EU import price: €3.74/kg, 1 January to 27 September 2026.

    • Stable

      Dates

      Dates

      Prices should hold close to current levels: Tunisia harvested a record 404,000 t in 2025/26 and the INC expects a 6% rise in world supply. EU import value: €2.44/kg from January to July 2026, versus 2.32 a year earlier.

  3. No date set yet

    Sultanas and dried apricots

    The two Turkish dried fruits hit hardest by the 2025 frost. Their premium is shrinking as the 2026 crop ships.

    • Down

      Sultanas and raisins

      Sultanas and raisins

      Manufacturers should pay less than in the first half of 2026 as old-crop contracts are replaced: the new Turkish crop was offered in July 2026 at €1.84 to 1.93/kg FOB, and the INC expects world raisin production to rise by 22%.

    • Down

      Dried apricots

      Dried apricots

      Turkish export value has already lost 28% in dollars from January to September 2026, and growers were paid 220 to 280 TRY/kg versus 380. A return to the pre-frost €4.36/kg of March 2025 looks unlikely.

    Dried figs and fig paste

    A large crop and much cheaper raw material, but sanitary controls remain the real filter on supply to Europe.

    • Down

      Dried figs

      Dried figs and fig paste

      Decline expected for dried figs, with no separate call on paste: the 2026 crop is estimated at about 94,000 t, a third above 2025, and raw figs fetched €2.00 to 3.40/kg in Aydın on 29 September 2026.

  4. April 2027End of the six-month calls
    To watch

    If EU border rejections remain this frequent, compliant dried fig lots could stay expensive despite the large crop. The first weeks of fig shipments, open since 28 September, will show whether export offers adjust.

LiveQuote index

Index changes at 7 October 2026

Raisins
Commodity3 months1 year
Sultana raisin-1.7%-0.8%
Raisin-1.6%-0.7%
Currant+7.2%-2.6%
Flame raisin (also Sunmuscat)-6.5%-8.1%
Other dried fruits
Commodity3 months1 year
Prune (also Agen prune)+1%+2.9%
Date-0.8%-0.9%
Dried banana-3.1%-4%
LQI

LiveQuote index changes at 7 October 2026. An index change is not the price of one product.

Forces at play

What moves these markets

  • Turkey is back

    Sultanas, apricots and figs depend first and foremost on Turkey. After the 2025 frost, Manisa province expects 308,000 t of sultanas, Malatya 67,418 t of dried apricots, and figs are benefiting from the best rains in 66 years. Grower prices have plunged, and export prices are following.

  • Turkish state agencies carry weight

    The state agency TMO pays 95 TRY/kg for type 9 sultanas, about €1.70/kg, while traders were paying 50 to 62 TRY/kg in September. Apricot and fig growers are still waiting for a state price. These decisions may support the higher grades.

  • EU controls filter supply

    30% of Turkish fig lots are checked for aflatoxins and ochratoxin A, with more than 200 rejections over the season. Sulphur residues slowed dried apricots in August. Compliant lots may stay expensive even with a large crop.

  • Hormuz and Ramadan

    Iran banned and then exempted its date exports, Gulf freight rose up to fourfold, and EU imports of Iranian dates fell by 15%. Ramadan, around 8 February 2027, concentrates shipments between November and January.

Questions

What buyers ask

  • Will sultana and raisin prices fall in 2027?

    We expect sultana and raisin prices to move down through April 2027 as old-crop contracts give way to the cheaper new Turkish crop, offered at €1.84 to 1.93/kg FOB in July 2026. At 7 October 2026, the LiveQuote sultana raisin index had moved -1.7% over 3 months and -0.8% over 1 year.

  • Will dried fig prices fall after the large 2026 Turkish crop?

    We expect a decline for dried figs. Raw figs fetched €2.00 to 3.40/kg in Aydın on 29 September 2026, versus about 4.80 last season, but export indications of €6.10 to 9.60/kg FOB have not moved yet. If EU border rejections remain this frequent, compliant lots could stay expensive.

  • Will prune prices stay high until 2027?

    We expect firm prune prices until the size of the 2027 Chilean crop is known, with upside risk: Chile has committed 90% of its crop and the French industry expects a 30 to 50% loss. In Chile, replenished water reserves raise hopes of a good 2027 crop. EU import prices averaged €3.74/kg from 1 January to 27 September 2026.

Main sources

Eurostat Comext, customs values and volumesEuropean Commission, supply chain pricesGUS (Poland), statistical offices of Serbia and TurkeyUSDA FAS and NASSINC (International Nut and Dried Fruit Council)Expana, Mundus Agri, FreshPlaza, EastFruitFranceAgriMer, Réseau des Nouvelles des MarchésECB, reference exchange rates

For information only, not a purchasing recommendation. The six-month calls give a likely direction, not a guaranteed price forecast.

Next step

From the trend to the consultation

The note gives you the direction of prices.
LiveQuote shows you the available suppliers and their offers on your actual need.

  • The suppliers available for your materials
  • Today's market prices, against your offers
  • Six-month forecasts in LiveQuote Data
  • A demo on your own data, with no commitment

Follow your materials tonight

7 days of full access, forecasts included, no card needed.

Start my trial

The full note

Every chapter, its figures and its sources, in one PDF.

Let's talk

A 30-minute demo is enough to see what the tool changes on one of your materials.

Ask for a demo

or write to [email protected]

Read next

Other market notes

Crustacean, cephalopod and shellfish prices: October 2026 review and outlook

5 min read

In October 2026, vannamei shrimp is the only crustacean, cephalopod or shellfish price we expect to fall through April 2027, as Ecuador exports record volumes; lobster, jumbo squid, Illex and octopus look stable. Chilean mussel, king scallop and Japanese scallop remain expensive on short harvests or weaker stocks. El Niño, expected to be strong off Peru this winter, is the common risk.

Read the post
€4.87/kg
Ecuadorian shrimp at EU import in July 2026, the lowest since March 2021Eurostat, July 2026
  • Down
    Vannamei shrimp
  • Mixed
    Argentine shrimp, Patagonian squid, Chilean mussel, King scallop, Scallops
  • Stable
    Lobster, Jumbo squid, Illex, Octopus

Salmon, trout and farmed fish prices: October 2026 review and outlook

5 min read

Among salmon, trout and farmed fish bought frozen by food manufacturers, LiveQuote expects only pink salmon prices to rise between October 2026 and April 2027; sea bass and sea bream, pangasius, perch and pike-perch should stay stable, and Atlantic salmon, trout and Nile perch get a mixed call. Farming is running at full capacity, but wild catch is short in the North Pacific and in Lake Victoria.

Read the post
98,400 t
Pacific salmon caught in Russia as of 29 September 2026, against a forecast of 227,000 tRussian catch data, 29 September 2026
  • Up
    Pink salmon
  • Mixed
    Atlantic salmon, Trout, Nile perch
  • Stable
    Sea bass and sea bream, Pangasius, Perch and pike-perch

Tuna and small pelagic prices: October 2026 review and six-month outlook

5 min read

For tuna and small pelagics, LiveQuote expects stable prices until April 2027 for frozen mackerel, herring, yellowfin and albacore, and no single direction for sardine, anchovy and skipjack, as of October 2026. Mackerel holds a high plateau after a 48% quota cut, sardine hinges on whether Morocco lifts its export ban, and Bangkok skipjack is close to its all-time highs.

Read the post
-48%
Cut in the 2026 mackerel quota, to 299,010 tUnited Kingdom, Norway, Faroe Islands and Iceland, 2026 quota
  • Mixed
    Sardine, Anchovy, Skipjack
  • Stable
    Mackerel, Herring, Yellowfin, Albacore
All market notes

Cookie preferences

We use cookies for essential features like authentication, and optional cookies for analytics and error tracking. You can choose to accept or decline optional cookies. Privacy Policy