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Market note · October 2026

Whitefish prices: October 2026 review and six-month outlook

Whitefish stays expensive in October 2026: among our 11 six-month calls to April 2027, Alaska pollock is the only expected rise, cod, saithe and ray wings should stay stable, and the other seven are mixed. The 2026 quota cuts pushed cod and saithe fillets to records, and the 2027 quotas will only be set in December.

The market in four figures

  • €11.77/kgRecord EU import value of frozen cod fillets in August 2026 (€9.43/kg in December 2025)
    Eurostat Comext, August 2026
  • +26%Rise in the EU import value of Alaska pollock fillets, March to August 2026
    Eurostat Comext, March to August 2026
  • 312,667 tScientific advice for Barents cod in 2027, about 10% more than in 2026
    Scientific advice for 2027
  • +70%Year-on-year rise in the price of marine diesel at end August 2026
    Trade press, end August 2026
Côme de CervalData expert, LiveQuote
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At a glance

Our calls to April 2027

Cod, haddock, saithe and pollock
CommodityTrend
CodFirm fillet import values, easing whole cod exports
Stable
Alaska pollockRising import values, strong Russian wholesale prices
Up
HaddockLarger Barents advice, but Icelandic cut
Mixed
SaitheSmaller North Sea quota, buyers switching from cod
Stable
Hakes and halibut
CommodityTrend
Cape hakeRising imports, strong rand, quotas not yet published
Mixed
Argentine hakeHigher export prices, but surging landings and imports
Mixed
Greenland halibutFalling export prices, but scarcer volumes late in the year
Mixed
Flatfish and ray
CommodityTrend
SoleFew landings, but easing auction prices and bigger advice
Mixed
PlaiceRising first-sale prices, more supply possible in spring
Mixed
Breaded flatfish filletsFirmer Chinese fillet imports, Bering sole TAC listed
Mixed
Ray wingsSteady US imports, dearer European supply
Stable
Six-month calls

The road to April 2027

  1. 21 October 2026Index date
  2. December 20262027 Barents and Bering quotas set

    Cod, haddock, saithe and pollock

    North Atlantic quotas pushed cod and saithe to records. Alaska pollock follows a few months behind, haddock is coming down from its spring peak.

    • Stable

      Cod

      Frozen cod fillets

      EU import of frozen fillets reached a record €11.77/kg in August 2026, from €9.43/kg in December 2025. Norwegian whole cod exports have eased since July, from €9.55 to €9.08/kg, and the 2027 Barents quota will be set in December.

    • Up

      Alaska pollock

      Alaska pollock blocks and fillets

      EU import values rose every month from April to August 2026, from €3.07 to €3.62/kg, and Russian wholesale prices were 59% above last year at end September. The 2027 Bering quota will be set in December.

    • Mixed

      Haddock

      Frozen haddock fillets

      Raw material is down 17% since April and the 2027 Barents advice is 180,336 t (+18%), but Iceland cuts by 20% for 2026/27. Fillets at EU import eased from €9.78/kg in April to €8.96/kg in August 2026.

    • Stable

      Saithe

      Frozen saithe fillets

      EU import of frozen fillets reached €7.48/kg in August 2026, the highest since at least 2021, driven by a 25% cut in the 2026 North Sea quota and buyers switching from cod. Norwegian fillet exports eased slightly in September, to €8.90/kg.

  3. 31 December 2026End of EU fuel aid

    Flatfish and ray

    At auction, diesel drives supply: the fleet stays in port, sole and plaice stay expensive. Plain flatfish fillets imported from China are rising.

    • 15 January 2027Bay of Biscay closure starts
    • 27 February 2027Bay of Biscay closure ends
    • Mixed

      Sole

      Common sole, whole, fresh and frozen

      Sole fetched €21.14/kg at first sale in the UK in August 2026, with EU volumes down 15% from January to May as the fleet stayed in port. Dutch auction prices have eased since end September, and the 2027 North Sea advice nearly doubles.

    • Mixed

      Plaice

      Plaice, frozen fillets and whole fresh

      Plaice at first sale in the UK rose from €2.22/kg in February to €3.38/kg in August 2026, and we expect fillets to follow later. More supply is possible in spring 2027 if diesel falls and the 2027 sole quota is generous.

    • Mixed

      Breaded flatfish fillets

      Breaded and plain flatfish fillets (sold as sole)

      Two products, two calls. We expect plain fillets stable to firm: imports from China rose from €4.03/kg in Q3 2025 to €4.74/kg in July-August 2026, and the 2027 Bering yellowfin sole TAC is already listed at 145,000 t.

    • Stable

      Ray wings

      Frozen ray wings

      EU import from the United States has stayed between €4.63 and €4.90/kg every quarter since July 2025, and 2026 quotas are set on both sides of the Atlantic. Dearer European supply and Korean demand are the firming factors.

  4. No date set yet

    Hakes and halibut

    Origin prices are rising in the Cape and Argentina, driven by the global whitefish shortage and currencies. Greenland halibut is coming down from its March peak.

    • Mixed

      Cape hake

      Frozen Cape hake fillets

      EU import from South Africa rose from €6.04/kg in December 2025 to €6.73/kg in August 2026, and the strong rand (18.66 per euro, against 20.48 a year earlier) pushes origin prices. The 2027 TACs are not yet published.

    • Mixed

      Argentine hake

      Argentine hake, fillets and headed and gutted

      Frozen fillet export prices rose from USD 3,285.5/t in January to USD 3,690.5/t in August 2026 (+13.1% year on year), but landings rose 70% in September and EU imports are up 25% in volume.

    • Mixed

      Greenland halibut

      Greenland halibut, whole and headed

      Norwegian export fell from a peak of NOK 107.17/kg in March 2026 to NOK 78.42/kg in September (€7.26/kg), 12% below September 2025. In 2025, though, the price rose again from September to December as volumes grew scarce.

  5. April 2027End of the six-month calls
    To watch

    The Barents and Bering 2027 quotas, due in December, and a possible EU sanction on Russian whitefish.

LiveQuote index

Index changes at 21 October 2026

Cod, haddock, saithe and pollock
Commodity3 months1 year
Atlantic cod-4.3%+14.8%
Pacific cod+0.2%+26.5%
Haddock+1.4%+7.2%
Saithe+16.1%+33.4%
Alaska pollock+10.6%+39.5%
Pollack+10.6%+2.7%
Whiting+0.6%+1.8%
Ling+28.7%+23%
Blue ling+29.1%+24.4%
Hoki+1.2%+5.6%
Pouting+3.4%+8%
Hakes, monkfish and deep-sea fish
Commodity3 months1 year
Hake+1.4%+5.1%
Cape hake+2.7%+6.5%
Argentine hake+2.1%+10.4%
North Pacific hake+16.1%+27.2%
American monkfish+0.5%+6.8%
Cape monkfish-2.9%+7.6%
Greenland halibut-3.2%+5.4%
Atlantic redfish+8.1%+20.6%
Toothfish-3.2%+5.9%
Flatfish, ray and auction fish
Commodity3 months1 year
Common sole-8.7%-1.8%
Plaice+14.2%+3.3%
Megrim+6%+1.4%
Patine+11.6%-5%
Thornback ray+19.4%+1.5%
Gurnard-1.5%-1.1%
Tub gurnard-2.1%+2.3%
Striped red mullet-1.9%+8.7%
Red mullet-2.7%+17.1%
John Dory+6.2%-2.5%
Conger+16.1%+2%
Dogfish+7.6%+3.8%
Nursehound+1.3%-1.3%
Small-spotted catshark-0.1%+0.6%
Grey mullet-9.4%+20.3%
Barracuda+2.6%+4.8%
Yellowtail kingfish-2.3%+3.9%
LQI

LiveQuote index changes at 21 October 2026. An index change is not the price of one product.

Forces at play

What moves these markets

  • 2026 quotas set the price, 2027 quotas are still open

    Barents cod -16%, North Sea cod -44%, North Sea saithe -25%: fillets reached records. The 2027 scientific advice is more generous (+10% for Barents cod, +18% for haddock), but quotas will only be decided in December.

  • Diesel, more than quota, limits some fisheries

    At end August, marine diesel cost about 70% more than a year earlier. First-sale volumes in the EU fell 15% for sole and 22% for plaice from January to May, while only about 30% of the North Sea plaice quota has been fished in recent years.

  • Currencies move prices as much as the market

    The Norwegian krone went from 11.84 to 10.80 per euro between December 2025 and September 2026, the rand from 20.48 to 18.66 over a year. Norwegian and South African exporters ask for more euros per kilo to keep their income in local currency.

  • Russian fish, a risk still open

    Russia supplied 51% of the pollock fillets and 15% of the cod fillets imported by the EU in 2026. Fish was left out of the sanctions package adopted on 23 July 2026; a later measure would quickly cut part of the supply.

Questions

What buyers ask

  • Will cod prices come down before April 2027?

    We expect frozen cod fillets to hold near their record until April 2027. EU import reached €11.77/kg in August 2026. Raw material has eased since July, but winter reduces catches, and the 2027 Barents quota, set in December on advice of 312,667 t (+10%), would slow the rise without reversing it.

  • Are Alaska pollock prices still rising?

    Yes. Alaska pollock is the only rise among our 11 six-month calls to April 2027. EU import values rose every month from April to August 2026, to €3.62/kg, +26% since March, and Russian wholesale prices were 59% above last year at end September. The 2027 Bering quota will be set in December.

  • Could EU sanctions on Russia cut whitefish supply?

    Russia supplied 51% of the pollock fillets and 15% of the cod fillets imported by the EU in 2026. Fish was left out of the sanctions package adopted on 23 July 2026, but a later measure would quickly cut part of the supply. A possible EU sanction on Russian whitefish is one of the points to watch.

Main sources

Eurostat Comext, customs values and volumesStatistics Norway (SSB), Norges RåfisklagNorwegian Seafood CouncilFAO GLOBEFISHMFRI Iceland, ICESMAGyP and Consejo Federal Pesquero (Argentina)Sea Harvest, Oceana, Namibian pressMMO (United Kingdom), CBS (Netherlands), EUMOFANOAA FisheriesUndercurrent News, Baird Maritime, PescareKommersant, InterfaxECB, reference exchange rates

For information only, not a purchasing recommendation. The six-month calls give a likely direction, not a guaranteed price forecast.

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